I Made Wirawan, Ilham Ari Elbaith Zaeni, Unggul Achmad Mujaddid, Abdul Syukor Bin Mohamad Jaya
Indonesia is one of the agricultural countries where most of its main livelihoods are in the farm sector. One of the agricultural commodities that cannot be released from people's lives is chili peppers. In general, the price of red chili varies relatively high every month of the year. The season can be attributed to the period of the rainy season that occurs in Indonesia. In addition to weather factors, the high price of red chili is also influenced by the inefficiency of the chili commodity distribution chain. Chili price prediction is needed to anticipate this. This study aims to determine the results and accuracy of chili price prediction using the Chen model and Cheng model Fuzzy Time Series method. This study uses data in the form of chili consumer prices from January 2017 to December 2019. The research data is from the Information System for Availability and Price Development of Basic Materials website (Siskaperbapo), which is managed by the Department of Industry and Trade of East Java Province. This study found that predictions for Cheng's method got better results than Chen's method, where MAPE result for the Cheng method was 12% versus 18% for the Chen method. © 2021 IEEE.
The State University Of Malang, Department Of Electrical Engineering, Malang, Indonesia; University Teknikal Malaysia Melaka, Fakulti Teknologi Maklumat Dan Komunikasi, Melaka, Malaysia
